SpaceX IPO estimator

Is a SpaceX allocation worth taking?

Base rates from 30 hyped US listings, re-weighted toward SpaceX-scale deals, then shifted for how it prices and what the market feels like. Edit anything below.

– Median Day 1 pop

– Chance positive at Day 30

– Median net P/L on allocation

– Chance you beat borrow cost

Assumptions (all editable — nothing here is live data)

Last private mark ($B) Assumed IPO valuation ($B) Premium to private mark: –. Richer pricing = less pop left on the table. Deal size ($B) Market regime Judgment call. Shifts the whole return distribution. Cohort weighting Default leans on mega/hyped listings like BABA, META, RIVN, UBER. Your allocation ($) Borrow APR (%) Set 0 if using cash. Exit plan

Where the money lands

SpaceX-adjusted Day 1 return distribution (cohort-weighted). Gold line = your breakeven after borrow cost.

The echelon problem

Approx. market cap at offer/reference price. Saudi Aramco (2019, ~$1.7T, +10% Day 1) is the only larger listing anywhere; it isn't in the US cohort.

IPOs over time, and where SpaceX would sit

Each bubble is a listing (size = deal size). Gold marker = SpaceX modeled Day 30 median, whisker = P10–P90 band.

If SpaceX trades like…

Pick up to 3 past listings. Each card replays that path on your allocation and borrow cost.

The evidence: 30 hyped listings

Full table

How the estimate works (and why to distrust it)

Base rates: Day 1 / Day 30 returns of 30 hyped US listings (2004-2023), hand-collected with source links.
Cohort weighting: each comp is weighted by how close its IPO-day valuation is to SpaceX's (log scale) with a 1.5x bump for mega/iconic/hyped names. SpaceX is bigger than every comp, so the weights lean on BABA, META, V, GM, RIVN, UBER.
Pricing adjustment: each 1% the IPO prices above the last private mark removes ~0.4pp of expected pop (capped at 20pp). Heuristic, not a law.
Regime shift: Hot/Cold shifts the whole distribution by roughly the 2020-21 vs 2022-23 gap in this dataset. A judgment input, not data.
Bands and probabilities are weighted percentiles of the adjusted historical distribution. n=30. The honest read: bands are wide because reality is wide.

No precedent exists for a $400B+ US tech IPO. Treat the point estimate as a sketch of the base rate, not a forecast.